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Photo by Bob Fisher on Unsplash
Pre-Tournament Predictions
Final scoresLock in your big-picture calls before a single bout is wrestled. Who lifts the Emperor's Cup? Will a grand champion crash out? Can the 21-year-old phenom win his way back to the top? Make your predictions across the whole tournament, then watch all 15 days to see how they hold up. Don't know sumo yet? Each question explains itself - you'll be fluent by the final day.
Winners
1 of 9
Who will win the yusho (the championship) and lift the Emperor's Cup?
Jul 11 @ 11:00 PM
Pick the correct answer.
PointsHoshoryuYokozuna (grand champion), the sport's top rank. Mongolian, nephew of the legendary Asashoryu. The healthier of the two grand champions right now, and a top favorite.
+1
OnosatoYokozuna, Japan's newest grand champion. Returning from a shoulder injury that kept him out in May; says he's chasing the title, but his fitness is the big question mark.
+1
KirishimaOzeki (second rank). Won the March title and reached the May final — in strong form, with a great comeback story after injuries once dropped him down the ranks.
+1
AonishikiCorrectSekiwake. The 21-year-old Ukrainian sensation who won back-to-back titles last winter before injury cost him his Ozeki rank. Dangerous if healthy, and chasing the 10 wins he needs to climb back.
+1
Wakatakakage (withdrawn due to injury)Sekiwake and reigning May champion (his second title). A crafty technician who fought all the way back from a serious knee injury.
+1
AtamifujiSekiwake. A young powerhouse who's lost two championship playoffs, both to Aonishiki, and is hungry for a breakthrough.
+1
KotozakuraOzeki, grandson of a former grand champion. Coming off a May withdrawal and must rebound just to keep his rank, so he's a long shot here.
+1
Field - any other wrestlerSumo regularly throws up a surprise champion from the lower ranks. Pick this if you think someone outside the favorites takes it.
+1
2 of 9
How many bouts will the yusho winner take?
Jul 11 @ 11:00 PM
Pick the correct answer.
Points13 or more winsThe runaway path: a champion who pulls clear of the field over the 15 bouts. Titles often go at 13-2 or 14-1, and a healthy, dominant favorite can reach this comfortably.
+1
12 or fewer winsCorrectThe scrappy path: a tight race with no breakaway leader. Three of the last four titles were won with just 12 of 15, often settled by a final-day playoff.
+1
3 of 9
Will the championship be decided by a playoff?
Jul 11 @ 11:00 PM
Pick the correct answer.
PointsYes - it goes to a playoffCorrectIf two or more wrestlers finish tied for the most wins after 15 days, they wrestle a sudden-death bout that same day to crown the champion (called a kettei-sen). It's been happening a lot - the last few tournaments needed one.
+1
No - an outright winnerOne wrestler finishes with the most wins on their own, no tiebreaker needed. Still the historical norm, even with the recent run of playoffs.
+1
4 of 9
Will any wrestler finish a perfect 15-0?
Jul 11 @ 11:00 PM
Pick the correct answer.
PointsYes - someone runs the tableA flawless 15-0 sweep, called a zensho yusho. Rare and electric; it usually takes a dominant grand champion at the peak of their powers. Only 86 have ever happened.
+1
No - everyone drops at least oneCorrectThe division is deep enough that someone almost always hands the leader a loss along the way. This is the safe lean - perfect tournaments are uncommon.
+1
5 of 9
Will Aonishiki win 10 or more bouts?
Jul 11 @ 11:00 PM
Pick the correct answer.
PointsYes - 10+ wins, Ozeki regainedCorrectThe comeback completes. Ten or more wins instantly restores the rank he lost, a special "clawback" rule for a recently demoted Ozeki. He's the most hyped young wrestler in the sport, so if his body holds up, this is well within reach.
+1
No - he falls short (or withdraws)He's returning from the foot and ankle injuries that cost him the rank in the first place. If he's not fully healthy, ten wins is a tall order - and an early withdrawal lands here too.
+1
6 of 9
Will either grand champion (Onosato or Hoshoryu) withdraw at any point?
Jul 11 @ 11:00 PM
Pick the correct answer.
PointsYes - at least one pulls outCorrectA grand champion who can't perform sits out rather than risk worse injury (called going kyujo), whether before Day 1 or partway through. Onosato is just back from a shoulder injury and Hoshoryu carries his own wear, so this is a live possibility.
+1
No - both go all 15 daysBoth yokozuna answer the bell every day, start to finish. It's what the top rank demands - but no sure thing given their recent injury histories.
+1
7 of 9
How many kinboshi - gold-star upsets of a grand champion by a rank-and-file wrestler - will the tournament produce?
Jul 11 @ 11:00 PM
Pick the correct answer.
Points3 or more gold starsCorrectUpset city. With two grand champions carrying injuries, the rank-and-file have real openings to topple them, and recent tournaments have piled up kinboshi (a gold star even comes with a permanent pay bump for the wrestler).
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2 or fewer gold starsThe grand champions mostly hold serve — or one withdraws early, which removes the chances to upset him. Fewer yokozuna on the dohyo means fewer gold stars on offer.
+1
8 of 9
Rank these four by their final win total, most wins to fewest.
Jul 11 @ 11:00 PM
Sort the competitors from first place to last place.
Points- 1AonishikiSekiwake. Elite when healthy; also coming back from injury.
- 2KirishimaOzeki in strong form, fresh off a March title and a May final.
- 3OnosatoYokozuna. Sky-high ceiling, but returning from injury - his total hinges on fitness.
- 4HoshoryuYokozuna. The healthier grand champion and a strong bet to rack up wins.
9 of 9
Will a maegashira (rank-and-file wrestler) win the championship?
Jul 11 @ 11:00 PM
Pick the correct answer.
PointsYes - a rank-and-filer shocks the fieldA maegashira (the numbered, lower ranks that make up most of the top division) storms past the champions to take the Cup. It doesn't happen often, but sumo serves up these Cinderella runs more than most sports do.
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No - a top-ranker takes itCorrectThe Cup stays with the establishment: a yokozuna, ozeki, or one of the sekiwake. The usual outcome, and the safe pick.
+1
Series chat
Eloy Avellaneda 2 months ago
Really funny to play and try to pick every winner. It has been my first basho and really enjoyed it. Thank you!
Thank you so much for playing! This was my first basho too! I've been having so much fun learning as I go.
NAGOYA 2026 IS IN THE BOOKS. 🏆 Congrats to @Cheeseheads84 , @dewayneb and @brian_bernstein for placing as our top 3! Aonishiki takes the Emperor's Cup at 12-3, winning a three-way playoff over Kirishima and Atamifuji. What a fortnight for the 22-year-old Ukrainian: he arrived demoted and injured, won his ozeki rank back with four days to spare, beat BOTH grand champions on consecutive nights, lost the Cup in the final bout of the tournament, then won it anyway minutes later. The rest of the story: the grand champions never showed up. Hoshoryu withdrew at 7-7, Onosato limped to 9-6 after starting 1-3, and between them they handed out four gold stars. Kotozakura saved his ozeki rank on the very last day. And rank-and-filers led this thing for a solid week, with Shishi and Takerufuji both finishing 10-5. All nine pre-tournament questions are now scored, and the season leaderboard is final. Thanks for playing, everyone. See you in September.
Day 14 wrap: one win from the Cup. Aonishiki beat Takerufuji to reach 12-2 and stand alone with a single bout left. Win today and the Emperor's Cup is his outright. Lose, and we go to a playoff. Because Atamifuji is still breathing: he beat Shishi to reach 11-3, and Kirishima is level with him after taking a default win. That's the other big news — Hoshoryu has withdrawn from the basho, finishing 7-7. Anyone who took "Yes" on a yokozuna pulling out in the pre-tournament round just cashed it. And the schedulers saved the perfect ending: Aonishiki faces Atamifuji today. The man who beat him in TWO championship playoffs gets one last crack, with everything on the line. Final day picks are live.
Day 13 wrap: Aonishiki won the semifinal. In the bout everyone circled, the 21-year-old beat ozeki Kirishima to move to 11-2 and stand ALONE at the top with two days left. He's now two wins from the Emperor's Cup, having already reclaimed his ozeki rank and beaten both grand champions along the way. What a fortnight. Cinderella didn't get her gold star: Onosato held off co-leader Takerufuji in the musubi. And Kotozakura finally exhaled for real - beating Shishi got him to 8 wins, which SAVES his ozeki rank after two weeks on the brink. Four chase at 10-3: Kirishima, Shishi, Takerufuji, Atamifuji. Tonight Aonishiki faces Takerufuji, and a win essentially seals it. Day 14 picks are live.
Day 12 wrap: the leader went down. One night after winning his ozeki rank back, Aonishiki got caught by Kotoshoho, and just like that we have a FOUR-way tie at 10-2 with three days left: Aonishiki, Kirishima, Shishi, and Takerufuji. An ozeki, the comeback kid, and two rank-and-filers ranked 14th and 13th. Elsewhere: Takerufuji ended Takayasu's title dream in the chasers' clash, Kirishima handled Onosato, and Kotozakura beat a yokozuna to reach 7-5 — the kadoban ozeki is now ONE win from saving his rank. Tonight the schedulers gave us the semifinal: Kirishima vs Aonishiki, co-leader vs co-leader. And Takerufuji gets a grand champion in the musubi with a gold star on the line. Day 13 picks are live.
Day 11 wrap: THE CLAWBACK IS COMPLETE. Aonishiki got win number 10, which means the 21-year-old has officially won back his ozeki rank, four days early, with victories over both grand champions along the way. If you picked "Yes" on his comeback in the pre-tournament round, that point is now locked. And he's not done: at 10-1 he stands ALONE at the top of the tournament. Behind him, a five-man chase pack at 9-2: Kirishima, Kotoeiho, Shishi (who won the leaders' clash), Takerufuji, and Takayasu. That's one ozeki and FOUR rank-and-filers still hunting the Cup with four days left. Tonight the schedulers force the issue: Takerufuji vs Takayasu, 9-2 vs 9-2. Day 12 picks are live.
Day 10 wrap: the kid did it AGAIN. One night after beating Onosato, Aonishiki toppled Hoshoryu. Both grand champions, back to back, at 21 years old. He's 9-1, tied for the lead, and now sits ONE win from reclaiming his ozeki rank. If you took "Yes" on his comeback in the pre-tournament round, you're one bout from cashing it. Sharing the top spot: Kotoeiho, the quiet 9-1 co-leader from Maegashira #7 that nobody has solved. Kirishima won his elimination-flavored showdown with Hakunofuji to stay one back at 8-2 alongside Shishi and Takayasu. Kotozakura kept his rank-saving hopes alive at 5-5 — he needs 3 of his last 5. Tonight's bonus bout: the leaders collide, Kotoeiho vs Shishi. Day 11 picks are live.
Day 9 wrap: the kid beat a grand champion. Aonishiki toppled Onosato in the night's headliner, moving to 8-1 and just TWO wins from reclaiming his ozeki rank. The 21-year-old is now a co-leader with rank-and-filers Shishi and Kotoeiho, both also 8-1 and refusing to go away. Elsewhere the spoilers ran wild: Churanoumi (2-6 coming in!) knocked off Kirishima, and Yoshinofuji beat Hoshoryu, meaning the komusubi has now beaten BOTH grand champions this basho. Kotozakura's rank-saving math got uglier too: at 4-5, the ozeki must win 4 of his last 6. Tonight the schedulers went full villain: Aonishiki gets the other yokozuna, Hoshoryu. Beat both grand champions back to back? Get your Day 10 picks in.
Day 8 wrap (nakabi, the midpoint): the contenders held serve. Kirishima won the night's marquee bout over Atamifuji, and Aonishiki survived a scare from Takanosho — so your leaders at 7-1 are: Kirishima, Aonishiki, Shishi, and Kotoeiho. An ozeki, a sekiwake, and two rank-and-filers nobody had on their radar two weeks ago. Aonishiki is now just 3 wins from reclaiming his ozeki rank. Hakunofuji lurks one back at 6-2 alongside both grand champions' pursuit: Hoshoryu 6-2, Onosato 6-2... check that, Onosato sits 5-3 after handling Oho. And Kotozakura finally exhaled: at 4-4, the kadoban ozeki needs 4 of his last 7 to save his rank. Day 9's headliner: Aonishiki vs Onosato. Get your picks in.